The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks surpassed the 30% threshold for the first time in a single month, positioning China's tire industry at the convergence point of a new round of technological upgrades and market expansion.

In November 2025, China's heavy-duty truck market concluded with monthly sales approaching 100,000 units, a near 50% year-on-year increase, achieving a remarkable "eight consecutive months of growth." Within this impressive report card, terminal sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks are estimated to reach 26,000 units, a 1.6-fold increase year-on-year, with the single-month penetration rate historically breaking through 30%.

Almost simultaneously, at Zhongce Rubber Group's Jintan factory, a dedicated tire for super VAN trucks named "Green Warrior EV505" officially rolled off the production line. This tire, which utilizes ultra-strong full-alloy steel cords and an industry-first manufacturing process, aims to address the tire pain points of new energy panel vans under the demanding requirements of "carrying more and running faster."

From the explosive growth at the market's end to the technological innovation in manufacturing plants, China's truck tire industry is being propelled by a powerful force toward a new era driven by both demand and technology.

01 Market Engine: Heavy Truck Sales' "Eight Consecutive Gains" Bring Timely Relief to the Tire Industry

China's heavy-duty truck market delivered results exceeding expectations at the end of 2025. Eight consecutive months of year-on-year growth not only brought the annual sales target of 1.1 million units within reach but also provided an immediate demand feast for the upstream tire industry.

The most direct pull comes from new vehicle original equipment (OE) demand. As an "essential consumable" for heavy trucks, tire demand is rigidly linked to vehicle sales. Data shows that the 106,200 heavy trucks sold in October alone brought over 1.27 million new orders for all-steel radial tires to the market. This is also the core driver behind the significant performance growth in the OE business of major domestic tire companies since the third quarter.

However, more valuable than the sheer volume growth is the profound change in market structure. This growth wave exhibits distinct dual characteristics of being "green" and "efficient."

New energy heavy-duty trucks are being adopted at an unprecedented pace. The milestone of exceeding 30% penetration in November means that for every three heavy trucks sold, one is an electric or hydrogen fuel cell model. This opens up a brand new blue ocean market for new energy-specific tires characterized by low rolling resistance and high load-bearing capacity.

Concurrently, natural gas heavy-duty trucks have also maintained high popularity, with sales exceeding 20,000 units for three consecutive months and a penetration rate surpassing 24%. Their relatively stable operating costs provide sustained and reliable demand support for tires specifically adapted to natural gas vehicles.

02 Future Dividend: The Replacement Market Reservoir, Catalyzed by Policy to Release Demand

The surge of new vehicle sales foretells an even larger future demand from the replacement market. For heavy-duty trucks with an average annual mileage exceeding 100,000 kilometers, the replacement cycle for all-steel radial tires typically ranges from 150,000 to 250,000 kilometers. This means that the surge of new vehicles in 2025 will create a massive and sustained demand peak for the replacement market in the next 1-2 years.

The current recovery in the freight market is already injecting vitality into this "reservoir." In November, China's road freight transport price index rose 1.43% month-on-month, indicating increased cargo transport activity, vehicle utilization rates, and operational intensity. As components in direct friction with the road surface, the wear rate of tires is positively correlated with operational intensity. The market recovery directly stimulates immediate replacement demand.

The underlying force driving this growth cycle stems from the national-level "scrappage and renewal" policy. This policy has been extended from 2024 into 2025 and has expanded its scope to include China IV emission standard vehicles. Statistics indicate that the inventory of China IV heavy-duty trucks was approximately 760,000 units at the end of 2024, forming a considerable base for replacement. Huatai Securities analysis points out that the policy's pull effect is accelerating nationwide and has driven wholesale and retail sales of heavy-duty trucks to achieve "three consecutive increases."

This force generated by the resonance of policy and market is pulling the tire industry out of the past quagmire of "price wars" and pushing it toward a new stage of high-quality development driven by value and technological innovation.

03 Technological Breakthrough: Born for "Electric Heavy Loads," Solving the Industry's "Three Highs" Dilemma

Market opportunities always favor prepared technological innovators. Facing the unique challenges posed by the "high torque, heavy load" characteristics of new energy commercial vehicles, leading Chinese tire companies have already presented dedicated solutions.

Traditional tires frequently fall into a new "three highs" dilemma—high wear, high failure, high irregular wear—when dealing with new energy commercial vehicles. This is caused by the combined effect of the "instantaneous high torque" characteristic of electric motors and the approximately 25% increase in vehicle weight due to batteries. Zhongce Rubber's data shows that under such operating conditions, the abnormal wear rate of tires is as high as 30%, and the bead failure incidence rate even reaches 50%.

To solve this worldwide challenge, Zhongce Rubber integrated over 60 years of technological assets and collaborated with top universities on over 110 industry-university projects, ultimately creating the globally pioneering "X Technology System." This system comprises three core technologies: X-Carbon Extreme Technology uses enhanced composite materials to increase wear resistance by 50%; X-Xuanjia Technology reinforces the tire skeleton to enhance load-bearing capacity and stability; X-Art Technology innovates the curing process to improve rubber density.

The dedicated tire family developed based on this system comprehensively covers the full range of commercial vehicle scenarios, from electric heavy-duty trucks to micro-trucks.

04 Product Implementation: Super VAN Tire Roll-off, Targeting the Urban Logistics Blue Ocean

Beneath the macro technological system lies the precise product implementation for segmented markets. In early December 2025, the world's first dedicated super VAN tire, "Green Warrior EV505," officially rolled off the production line at Zhongce Rubber's Jintan base.

The birth of this product directly targets a booming segment market—new energy panel vans (VANs). Ge Guorong, Senior Vice President of Zhongce Rubber Group, pointed out that this market is entering a golden period of development. However, the pain points of ordinary structure tires—prone to bulging and irregular wear under heavy loads—severely constrain users' operational efficiency.

The EV505's solution can be described as a "dimensionality reduction strike." Its core is the ultra-strong full-alloy steel cord developed in cooperation with the Belgian company Bekaert, combined with an industry-first dedicated forming process to create the world's first full-alloy tire body. This breakthrough structure results in a qualitative leap in the tire's load-bearing capacity, durability, and anti-deformation ability, meeting the demanding requirements of urban logistics for "carrying more and running faster."

The Jintan base, as the birthplace of this innovative product, itself carries the mission of industrial upgrading. With a total investment of 5.5 billion yuan, the base will form a production capacity of 25 million high-performance radial tires annually upon full operation. Currently, production lines are operating while undergoing debugging, with capacity steadily ramping up, expected to reach the first-phase designed capacity around the Spring Festival of 2026.

05 Overseas Journey: Navigating Trade Waves, Global Layout Builds Resilience

While the domestic market advances triumphantly, the overseas journey of Chinese tires demonstrates resilience in a complex international environment. In the first ten months of 2025, China's rubber tire export value reached a substantial 134.8 billion yuan, maintaining growth. This confirms the irreplaceable cost-performance and supply chain advantages of Chinese tires in the global market.

However, the path overseas is not smooth. The EU's "double reverse" (anti-dumping, anti-subsidy) investigations pose short-term challenges. However, industry analysis suggests that trade friction may accelerate industry consolidation, strengthening the advantages of leading enterprises. Leading companies with established presence in "non-involved" overseas production bases can not only effectively circumvent tariff barriers but may also take on more transferred European orders.

Observing from a global perspective, rhythms differ across markets. The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) predicts that total U.S. tire shipments in 2025 will increase by a mere 0.03% compared to the record year of 2024. However, its internal structure shows clear divergence: OE shipments for truck tires are projected to fall sharply by 18.1%, while replacement market shipments are expected to grow by 7.9%.

The key takeaway for Chinese tire exports is that product strength and brand power are becoming more important than mere price advantage. High-end tire products offering longer mileage, lower rolling resistance, and better retreading potential will win greater space in the global replacement market.

06 The Path Forward: From Price Competition to Value Creation, Embracing Intelligence and Sustainability

Standing at the intersection of demand and technology, the future path for China's truck tire industry is becoming clearer: moving away from low-level price competition toward value creation centered on technological innovation, service enhancement, and sustainable development.

Intelligence and data services will become a new dimension of competition. Through tire-embedded sensors and telematics technology, fleet managers can monitor tire pressure, temperature, and wear conditions in real-time, enabling predictive maintenance to maximize tire lifecycle and reduce overall operational costs. Tires are no longer just components but key data nodes in fleet digital management.

Sustainable development is another inevitable path. This includes both developing energy-saving tires with lower rolling resistance to help electric vehicles extend their range and environmentally responsible management of the entire tire lifecycle. For example, by improving carcass quality and increasing the number of retreads, a truck tire carcass can be reused, with tread retreading possible up to 3 times, significantly saving resources and energy.

The expectations outlined by Xu Wenying, President of the China Rubber Industry Association, for leading industry enterprises sketch the future development framework: continue increasing R&D investment and product innovation; strengthen strategic synergy with upstream and downstream industry chains; deepen global presence and cultivate international talent. This is the path of industrial upgrading from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China."

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Key Market Data and Trends:

Trend	Specific Performance
Heavy Truck Market Growth	November sales near 100,000 units, ~50% year-on-year increase, achieving "eight consecutive gains"
Structural Change	New energy heavy truck penetration first broke through 30%; Natural gas heavy truck penetration > 24%
Tire OE Demand	October heavy truck sales alone brought over 1.27 million new all-steel tire orders
Technological Breakthrough	"X Technology System" increases tire wear resistance by 50%, reduces bead failure rate by 50%
Export Resilience	Tire export value Jan-Oct 2025 reached 134.8 billion yuan

From the roaring heavy truck fleets on the highways to the silent alloy steel cords in the laboratories; from the policy tailwinds of domestic "scrappage and renewal" to the trade waves in overseas markets, China's truck tire industry is in a strong upward trajectory.

When the wave of new energy pushes the single-month penetration rate past the 30% threshold, and when specialized technology begins to solve the industry's challenge of "high wear, high failure," the profound impact of this transformation driven by both market and technology may have just begun.